Adam's Digital Garden

Are sanctions enough to stop the invasion of Ukraine?

In short, no, and EU politicians do not expect they will stop the invasion of Ukraine. Sanctions are virtue signaling to own voters that politicians are doing something. There have been sanctions against Russia since 2014 making Russia more resistant to sanctions. Russia has not left Crimea, instead attacked Ukraine. Some reasons sanctions fail

Some other sanction failures

A literature review found 34 % of use of sanctions partially successful and unsuccessful in regime change. Finally 30% of Europe’s gas comes from Russia and this has not been stopped, instead we are banning sale of airplane parts, industrial drilling equipment, visa bans, banking sector bans, and freezing of politicians assets.

Google quick Research

The jury is still out on whether sanctions actually work. “The early assessments of these targeted sanctions is that they are quite useful in signaling displeasure and as tangible signs of support for international norms,” Kimberly Ann Elliott, one of the authors of “Economic Sanctions Reconsidered,” told me in an e-mail. “Their utility in changing objectionable behavior is more questionable.”

Rather than creating a cleavage between the government and the people, they (blanket sanctions) have the opposite effect of people have greater solidarity with the government because they’re - everybody is being affected by them.

Russia has been subject to sanctions for years dating back at least as far as the 2014 annexation of Crimea—and the behavior of the country has not changed in a positive way since then.

“The record of those actions is that they fail,” says Steve Hanke, professor of applied economics at Johns Hopkins University. “There are always workarounds,” meaning sanctions won’t stop the rich from getting money in or out of the country.

“Whoever is imposing the sanctions are viewed as the enemy,” Hanke says.

Europe, which gets around a third of its natural gas from Russia.

World is still buying Russian oil even though the prices have gone up “The concern is that Russia would somehow curb oil exports if they really feel backed into a corner,” said Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy .

There are 5 categories of sanctions being implemented SWIFT blocking has been used in Iran and North Korea. A benefit of sanctions for politicians virtue signaling to own voters. 2014 sanctions made Russia more resistant to sanctions. Russian state finances are now save from sanctions. Putin has power until 2036. “Vise sin egen vælger at de faktisk gør noget” (Show their own voters that they are actually doing someting)

EU sanctions video searches 22/02-2022

Targeting strategic sectors to weaken Russian base and modernization. “Gradually erode industrial base” Ursula von der lion Sanctions include Visa restrictions on diplomats and business Ban aircraft equipment Stop exports on industrial technology

”Over time sanctions will have impact, won’t halt what Russia is doing in the Ukraine,” irelands prime Taoiseach Micheal Martin